Friday, December 26, 2014

Artificial intelligence...coding the heartless machine

Artificial intelligence (AI) is the intelligence exhibited by machines or software. It is an academic field of study which studies the goal of creating intelligence. Major AI researchers and textbooks define this field as "the study and design of intelligent agents", where an intelligent agent is a system that perceives its environment and takes actions that maximize its chances of success. John McCarthy, who coined the term in 1955, defines it as "the science and engineering of making intelligent machines".

I am currently doing research with the objective that someday there will be enough analysis to prepare for the coding and development of the machine of the future, which will be modeled on Robocop - the heartless cop. The basic underlying concept is that although we think in emotions, it is the elimination of distractions that will make the machine more effective, capacity-holding and efficient in processing capability, as it seems sensical to assume that artificial intelligence won't spring up from a mushroom; it has to grow.
Another important obstacle to overcome is the generation gap i.e. how does knowledge pass on from one generation of humans to another and what happens to it along the way, which is the subject of quite a few pages of research in its respect, and, I hope to cover this as soon as I find a sponsoring organization. Information is stored from millions of humans brains connected to the supercomputer, so the engine is able to learn without losing any time, this is the most efficient view of information processing. However we need to do more than store the information, this kind of technology is already available, we need the machine to start learning unsupervised and this is the major innovation that is hoped to be answered through artificial intelligence research.

Use case 1.0 - the disgruntled employee
John Smith had a few years ago been fired by a manager and he still feels remorse towards him, to the point that every time that there is an emotional connection, hate is the emotion that is brought up, and, therefore the logical question is whether to try to clone the brain and turn the hate to forgiveness, and this is a Catholic concept, however the answer to this question seems too simplistic, whilst human emotions are difficult to untangle, whilst, they might be more flexibly re-programmed in artificial intelligence.
Secondly, there is the question of whether stopping hate resolves the problem or removes knowledge altogether, as the brain works by association, therefore the machine would obviously need to have a way to archive information, knowledge without replicating the undesired behavior.
This would have to be taken into consideration when we are writing algorithms for supervised and unsupervised learning. Observations indicate that memories do not go away, they are just bound by synapses with weaker associations, and, the intelligence mechanism needs to improve on the prioritization of the associations based on the goals of the system (sub-system) being programmed. One has to investigate whether a computer based on a neural network (human brain model) is the most appropriate model or whether the imperfection lies within the biological architecture of the human brain that requires structural re-engineering, and, this is the major complexity of this project. It is also important for the scientist to follow professionally endorsed academic research methods including detachment from the emotional state of the programming, and, the most appropriate method is that the original writer of the idea is detached from the technical architect of the project, due to an inherent conflict of interest that is perceived. Other ethics have to be prepared within a code of ethics written for these projects.

Use case 2.0 - surgeon
We do not avail from expertise in medical surgery and therefore, we are looking for people who would want to collaborate. In brief, the robot will be mechanically driven and therefore reduce the risk of fatigue, improper professional decisions and conflict of interests.
Initially, we intend to carry out an analysis to study whether over a longitudinal period of time the human intelligence and its contribution towards scientific research is more effective as a "duty of care" than a supervised or unsupervised learning algorithm that seeks to carry out surgery at a lower cost of maintenance. As with most research projects, research and development costs are expected to be high and these would be balanced by the perceived economics of scale and production over a long period of time, which is the raison d'etre for scaling out this project to a widest possible audience and research institutes. Other useful use cases include industrial research, telecommunications, and a study of the underlying models behind social media network Facebook due to the underlying concept of closely affiliating to how people socialize, with a regard for privacy of research subjects. Privacy can be a concern because in certain cases, it might be required to take a decision on how to store data in a secure manner and confidentially and within the parameters of the laws, whilst still keeping a relation between personal data and research information. Information systems theory leads us to attempt to store data on a reductionist "need to know" basis, although the objectives of the research prevail in the strategic sense. Industry leaders have criticized artificial intelligence in a negative manner as warfare can lead to use of weapons which are lead by irresponsible political leaders:
"If any major military power pushes ahead with AI weapon development, a global arms race is virtually inevitable, and the endpoint of this technological trajectory is obvious: autonomous weapons will become the Kalashnikovs of tomorrow." Sourced from futureoflife.org.
System architecture The system would have to use the largest processing power available, however, eventually may have to be deployed on a small processor, therefore, capacity planning is a highly relevant stage of this research.
Inputs shall include a variety of devices including computers attaching themselves to the network - generalized through an Internet connection, and, human beings connected through electrodes that read brain signals. An important issue of capturing all possible signals and interpreting them at source arises as a major quality objective. Technologies with which to interface vary widely with the increasing availability of proprietary and open-source technologies, as knowledge is learnt from stable and unstable technologies, this is the main objective behind machine learning i.e. processing the unknown at unprecedented efficiencies and with superior quality of processing as this is the reason why this project is - in theory - feasible. Processing shall include capturing business logic using established models of software architecture and attempting to create new ones along the research project this is the motivation behind novel projects i.e. the unknown. The application shall include usable user-interface, modern software design, and, professional standards of processing business intelligence for the application processing capabilities, whilst loading information from a pre-fetching database, extracting, transforming and loading it to a multi-location data warehouse. Mirrored data shall be synched. Outputs include storing new knowledge and structured information within various research institutes where client applications might be developed and maintained for further processing information and providing information back to the central brain. Eventually outputs are visible through computer-enabled devices, that may consist of thick terminals (desktop PCs), thin terminals, mobile phones, computers and wearable technologies. The advantage of a multi-location database is that data can be spread to reduce the risk of it being deleted accidentally, although it is assumed that backups are taken by normal systems administration procedures. Different communication protocols have to be interfaced with due to the widespread use of technology that includes a huge history of wireless and wired communication protocols, and, satellite links would be explored, in order to transmit data across different planets, not merely to limit intelligence to our own little planet. Thus the physical features of the computers making up the network would have to be resilient to different planets or else be resident on satellites, allowing for an efficient synchronization giving the impression of real-time processing.
This is the architect's vision of the artificial intelligence project, it is expected to take at least 200 years to complete.
I think that the data architecture should initially be composed of the following data set groupings:
a) a human sample of around 1,000,000 personas using a stratified sample to diversify the psychological influences, age, socio-economic background and demographic factors.
b) "Robocop" sample, which is the independent data set whose intelligence is targeted for situations where emotions are thought to be unproductive or lacking efficiency, for example, in the production of high performance cars.
c) unstructured data that needs to be processed using supervised semi-automated learning and eventually unsupervised learning which is subject to a review by a committee of experts and quality assurance analysts. The above is a textual representation in terms of inputs, processing and outputs, the diagram was not scanned to make life a bit more difficult to people who want to copy this idea without acknowledging my work.
Has supercomputer technology outperformed the human brain? "The brain carrying out twenty quadrillion operations every second is not synonymous with twenty quadrillion memories being stored every second. Rather, data is temporarily stored, in a scratch-pad sort of fashion, and is over-written when no longer needed. Given this level of complexity, how then can we estimate how much artificial memory must be allocated for a machine to simulate brain functions? Paul Reber is a brain researcher. If he is correct, the brain has a memory capacity of 2.5 quadrillion bytes. An average modern human's lifespan is seventy-five years. Reber's figure then implies the average human brain stores thirty-three trillion bytes a year (2.5 quadrillion divided by 75). Using this figure, how much artificial memory would be required to historize the activities of the 100 billion people who have ever lived?" Sourced from an online article.
As of 2015, there are supercomputers which can perform up to quadrillions of floating operations per second (FLOPS), according to an article found online.
I am of course open to questions, but more open to answers, funding and structural help, you may contact me on camilleri.jon@gmail.com.

References
1. Robocop (2014) - http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1234721/
2. Artificial intelligence - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_intelligence
3. Projection theory and psychology the art of blaming other people - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychological_projection
4. Signal processing - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Signal_processing
5. Copyright - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Copyright
6. Model-View-Controller - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Model%E2%80%93view%E2%80%93controller
7. American Association of Neurological Surgeons - https://www.aans.org/About%20AANS/~/media/4A6862BB037742FF99B833D609D23B1E.ashx
8. Data Protection Directive (95/45/EC) and other relevant laws - http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=CELEX:31995L0046:en:HTML
. 9. Could a robot do my job? Robotics in the UK (BBC)
10. Cryonics: What the nervous system of the roundworm tells us about freezing brains and reanimating human minds.
11. A Post-Human World: Should We Rage, Rage Against the Dying of the Mites?

Wednesday, December 24, 2014

Productivity tips...

An online dictionary defines productivity as the quality, state, or fact of being able to generate, create, enhance, or bring forth goods and services. Management students and professionals aim to achieve a maximization of productivity, efficiency and effectiveness, and, this can be further broken down into variables including cost, quality of work and timeliness of delivery.
Nevertheless, we all know that objective setting is merely the first step towards achieving organizational aims, and, one has to underline common mistakes made by companies in not understanding the effectiveness of their workforce and failing to exploit its potential:
1. Not providing sufficient training and research time is a "no go" for knowledge-based work.
2. Not having a positive attitude and not being an effective leader.
"If you're lucky enough to do well, it's your responsibility to send the elevator back down."
Kevin Spacey quoted at http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/authors/k/kevin_spacey.html#gyyDjb6SCVQ0MOjf.99
3. Having a toxic personality or ways of leadership which are too conventional, conservative and restrictive may give rise to conflicts with your people and in this respect people management skills are becoming increasingly important until you decide to do away with all humans and invest in capital-intensive robotics within your enterprise. Everyone must realize that "we are all humans" as the President of Malta was quoted to say on public media (Dec 2014). 4. Not respecting the privacy and the personal work-life balance of your team members. There is a clear definition of the contract of work and we should avoid being rude or invasive in our requests, leaving the rest for coffee time, if we are into socializing.
5. Avoid the kind of attitude where you focus solely on your work without contributing to the work that you may be a stakeholder of in the future i.e. do not be short-sighted and collaborate, it is not lost time but time spent in learning the environment.
6. Avoid talking bad about your colleagues especially behind their back, what comes around turns around. Office politics create lack of harmony, as the majority of my previous colleagues realized and some of the consequences can have legal repercussions.

7. Productivity is important, however, one has to take into consideration appropriate documentation and training that allows a task-based, organized manner of working, whether under or without supervision. Performance can be measured at the individual level and at the team level, and, reward-based bonuses might motivate, although money does not resolve all your organizational problems, professional managers need to look beyond and think wide these days.
8. Manage your working tools whether they consist of a toolbox or your email, a search engine helps, and putting effective tips in practice in a standardized and uniform manner may be a good way to start working your way towards achieving ISO certification for quality (e.g. ISO 9001).
9. We tend to believe that inconsistencies confirm the fact that someone else is in error, however, do we ever question our own assumptions?
You may contact Jon on camilleri.jon@gmail.com if you want to avail from more tips and hints on how to manage your day to day productivity, and, for other business consultancy services.

Monday, December 15, 2014

How to file a report for discrimination?

Evidence 1. Job advert as advertised on newspaper or online
2. Your Curriculum Vitae, certificates and copies of correspondence exchanged with the employer or provider of a service
3. Recording of the job interview, remember that you have to advise the person that you are recording them according to the Data Protection laws, if you are keeping personal information about them. If you do not quote that you are citing criminal law, as this is legitimate purpose, and, that you are a private investigator.
See the information at https://socialdialogue.gov.mt/en/NCPE/Pages/NCPE_Home.aspx, you need to fill in a complaint form and an arbitrage process will be initiated. You may be required to witness as well. Different countries have different validation and criteria and some of them are not so clear in their validation requirements, it is useful to ask questions where you feel your complaint has not been handled as you wish it was. A book titled The Face of Discrimination available on Google Books details the qualitative data that need to be available, and, these include details of what happened (facts), an explanation of what happened (response), witness statements - preferably signed and initialized so they are more credible (witness), information on the perpetrators and the contact details (who), ideally a legal endorsement of the facts (legal attorney), and I would add legal references as the claim might be presented in a manner that indicates which laws and policies were breached by the facts or events reported. If you are no longer in a position to write it up, have a lawyer write it up for you, preferably a rights lawyer.

Saturday, November 29, 2014

Project management in a nutshell...

Project management is an organizational skill whereby a project manager communicates with the relevant and influential stakeholders and co-ordinates the work that is to be done, assigning resources and preempting risks according to a diligent process.
The three steps that are typically part of a project plan include:
1. Initial meetings with project sponsors and assigning of roles, responsibilities and stakeholder influence, along with risk assessment.
2. Drawing up the project plan and making estimations of the time, costs, and, quality objectives. In software projects and in engineering projects an approach that embraces quality assurance objectives at the outset is recommended, in software engineering practice this is known as test driven development (TDD). Training and research is part of the planning stage, and, this might be borne by the client or the project managing organization for novel projects, should the client accept the initial estimate, terms and conditions. A contract (and a statement of works) is usually signed and agreed upon by the project sponsor and the project managing organization.
3. The project needs to be implemented with the resources available and within the scope agreed, accommodating any changes according to careful evaluation of the different options and changes to the project. Quality assurance, audit, or end-user testing usually marks the end of the handover process as part of a managed change programme.
After the successful implementation of a project and at times during the course of the project - depending on the issues and risks at hand - lessons learnt reports (post-project), highlight reports which complement progress report and highlight priority issues (i.e. cup of coffee for the project manager) and investment appraisals (planning stage and post-project) are useful to evaluate the success of the project and gather learning points from points of project failure. Usually there is an expectation that projects have a start date and an end date, but nevertheless it is up to the smart organization skills of the project manager to see the progress through the planned milestones, and, to report any factors delaying the delivery communicating them with the project sponsors.
Formal project management methodologies used include PRINCE2, and, other project management methodologies specific to different industries and specializations. Project monitoring is based on matching expectations to actual results including financials, customer satisfaction, organizational learning and growth, along with quality and cost management criteria. Nevertheless, we have to appreciate that rationality is important when we take decisions that have an influence over others.
If you wish to engage me as a project manager you can contact Jon on camilleri.jon@gmail.com outlining your requirements in brief. We will revert initially with a tariff of charges and a request for a deposit that covers initial research costs. We may optionally give you a free initial meeting, however that is the discretion of the project manager.
Due to our open mentality towards innovative projects that might require novel technologies, we consider market factors and innovation as part of our projections and evaluate the risks of the project accordingly, based on academic knowledge.

Saturday, November 22, 2014

The labour market of today and tomorrow...

The labour market can be envisaged as a global marketplace where talent is matched with demand, and, fluctuations in demand and supply, increased need for flexibility, and, the economic recessions have brought about instability where employment is no longer a long-term career but merely a matter of demand and supply. Yet, the lack of talent available on the market might hypothetically create the need for employers to train their employees, it is just that they have a different kind of attitude.
On one hand training improves job mobility (Crouch et. al, 1999) and therefore employers might fear that their employees will take a "free ride" as soon as they get training. On the other hand, the ability of a manager to retain his/her employees depends partly on his/her leadership skills and team-building abilities, and, therefore, everyone has to share a slice of cake when it comes to shouldering responsibility. Not training employees might de-motivate people, or else might motivate people who are comfortable with low-wages and routine jobs. The contingency of who will replace the low-wage earners as soon as they move up the ladder of an organization - usually as they gain more experience, become more productive and effective and either specialize or diversify into different specialization, depending on their motivations, education/training and the opportunities available.
It is not uncommon for employers to ask employees to maintain their professional development i.e. fund their own training, although to be fair enough companies which envisage a long-term career for their employees, do provide rewarding pay-scales and bonuses for qualifications, achievements and above-average productivity. Nevertheless, the post-recession has brought about a certain cliche triggered by real or perceived uncertainty in the future, and, employers - notably but not limited to the UK and Malta - have emphasized their reluctance to increase their costs, even though the margins calculated by the author seemed to be immaterial even for a small to medium enterprise, however, it is quite possible that this was only a sample. Others say that this cliche is only "fuss" and thus people who advocate employment rights and conditions tend to sense this kind of attitude that seeks total flexibility in favour of the employer as an unacceptable position. In Malta substandard employment conditions have been socially labelled as "precarious", and unfortunately the conditions of work do not seem to have shifted back to favour the good old days when trade unions seemed to instil enough confidence in the workforce to allow them to negotiate with employers en nom collectif. For one, the author prefers to negotiate first-hand with the manager, because, it is quite legitimate to state that a contract has to be signed at least by two parties, and, the employee is one of them. Only recently has Germany legalized a national minimum wage, at a rate that is considerably higher than that in Malta, UK, and, some states within the United States of America, yet national minimum wage seems to be the legislation of choice which is never seriously considered for harmonization.
Although it is now possible to standardize on-the-job training assigning them comparable NVQs and making the skills marketable within the job market, some employers are still unwilling to pay for the training of general workers' skills (Steedman, 1998), and they seem not to understand that this strategic ignorance of up-to-date knowledge can fire back as incidents can happen out of lack of knowledge or competence, that can put the firm's reputation at risk within the competitive marketplace. The impending skills deficit (Leitch 2006) needs to be quantified and monitored in aggregate. Unfortunately, there transpires to be a cultural issue that diffuses certain issues which are criminal which some members of society notably of a particular gender are leaving to triviality, and surveys as highlighted by articles written on the Times of Malta
indicate that some perceive a level of exagerration in claims, this type of reaction is also lacking of due diligence, however, we cannot understand the details just by reading the overview unfortunately transparency still has a long way to go within the digital economy. Although not the norm, project-based employment (or engagement through self-employment or sub-contracting) is still prevalent for example in the construction industry and the IT, both requiring different skill sets and requiring different frames of mind for understanding the psychology of employees and creating the right environment to motivate their productivity and ongoing development. Project based work or fixed-term duration contracts may appear to provide greater flexibility to the employer. One of the disadvantages is that it brings about a negative perceptions as executives have been quoted to admit that they tend to overlook people who appear as "job hoppers", and, discrimination law does not seem to be enforced strongly enough to change the attitudes.
In order for a firm to have a wide view of the labour market it can choose to advertise within the internal labour market (its own firm), local labour market, and the global labour market that is being facilitated through international diplomatic agreements signed and agreed by government officials to facilitate and regulate trade and business across the globe, and thus job-seekers are faced with a vague promise that their rights and liberties are to continue being protected.
Employees, particularly those working on low pay might feel discriminated because initially their working conditions are inferior compared to those given to their senior colleagues, as firms with a career structure offer entry level conditions of work when they join an organization. The segregation of employees on a fast track of the career and employees on a slower track of the career is also a known cliche and nowadays employers speak of meritocracy, although there is no harmonized or standardized view on how personnel performance management has to be carried out. The author noticed very trivial ways of making judgments in his last employment, and, it seemed quite funny that the motivation for determining a low performer seemed to originate merely from suspicion and lack of trust, a factor that has been confirmed by three members of an appointed disciplinary board.
For the next 100 years, I believe that managers need to attempt to forecast based on the long-term, if we are to provide a basis for knowledge on how to make plans which do not result in recessionary factors, and, lay-offs, and, therefore business sustainability is an important factor that needs economic re-assurance and detailed knowledge of the global marketplace upon which to make realistic estimates on the future. It is true that it is impossible to predict the future accurately, however, it is also true that history repeats itself, and, by making prudent assumptions we are able to plan better. It might be a business myth that a low labour cost per hour is an attractive business factor, and, this actually can meet several pages of critique:
1. Low wages tend to indicate a low level of skill and bargaining power available. Although low bargaining power or its perception might be attractive it might be hiding behind cultural factors that are like the "quiet before the storm of trouble", if we were to think in terms of warning signs, as experience indicates. Again this is forecasting it is partly made up of educated guesses and social sciences are not an exact science 20% of the time (Pareto principle). Employers promise "permanent jobs" and "career ladder based on achievement", this is mainly misleading advertising, the economy does not offer any long-term benefits intrinsically, at least I tend to believe so as I notice troughs and peaks of recession and fake booms, such as the dot-com boom.
2. It is quite possible to mark-up the costs and increase retail prices, although this would bring about an inflationary effect in theory, which has to be aggregated globally and broken down for further analysis. Retail price index is a function that measures consumer prices, and, although this is a general indicator of pricing, it is not necessarily a predictor of retail prices of the future, although we like to think that history repeats itself and we can observe trends of ebbs and flows of economic activity as aggregate revenues flow from boom to bust. The consumer has to pay the price when the calculations have been said and done, and, competition is still a barrier to major fluctuations so this might cause a perception that prices need to appear 'stable'. Stability does not necessarily mean that the prices are competitive or fair however, although it is quite easy to compare prices across the globe nowadays with the availability of electronic commerce shops in the large portion of the world where Internet is available.

From a career development perspective, human resources managers, might have to think about the following issues:
1. Will people who are under-employed be compensated over their career tenure?
2. What holistic criteria can we use as the basis for harmonizing performance management, for the firm, for teams and for individuals, and, how do we garner our learning abilities?
3. Do low-paying jobs "lock" people in a manner that they feel de-motivated to learn new transferable skills and thus be able to provide more services to their employer, in an economy that has confirmed the increasing risk of poverty as a major economic problem?
4. If we train people in skilled jobs or jobs that are "low pay" and they move to a higher career ladder, who is going to replace them, humans or robots, in the next 200 years or so and what are the risks of robotic technology?
This essay was written based on research available at the London School of Economics Online Research available online.

Thursday, November 20, 2014

How does the lending interest fluctuate in view of supply and demand?

Money supply or money stock, is the total amount of monetary assets available in an economy at a specific time. This is categorized into broad and narrow definitions of money from an academic perspective.

The European Central Bank lending rate as a last resort is at a historic low, yet, this does not quite give confidence to the private banking industry as the collector of savings of the many and the distribution of lending to the few, making record profits each year. There seems to be enough liquidity to allow the industry to remain unchanged, and totally uncaring of the repercussions it has caused during the economic recessions. But who blames the bankers, except for policy makers as they clearly and contractually informed you of their terms and conditions in advance?
This might leave opportunities for other financiers to venture into what the traditional bankers deem to be risky, as start-up businesses look to venture and seed capital, in an economy where money supply tends to be scarce and distributed sparingly to ensure the maximization of profits through the careful adjustment of interest rates so that the banking industry continues to make record profits, through discriminatory pricing of interest rates.
Yet there has been a move towards ethical banking that does not undermine its economic necessity to make a profit, and, by observing headlines we can clearly understand that the business model is healthy in profits and advanced in customer service. At least I am always treated with a high level of politeness and complete and objective information when I talk to a professional working for one of my preferred bankers, so I cannot quite complain that information is not available as a consumer.
The question of whether and how money supply can increase for start-ups, is one that we analyze through the lens of Keynesian economics, although this does not quite tell us whether money is the solution to all of our economic, and, our life problems. Even though the adage goes "money is power", there are more joys of life that most people might ignore if they become too greedy and obsessed about reaching higher levels of monetary gains.
First of all, deregulation and liberalization of markets can bring about increased flexibility available to the business, assuming that the economy is a fair level playing field, and, there again we have a huge stumbling block, as we might know that "the big fish is big enough to swallow the smaller fish", and, therefore businesses with more financial resources and negotiating power are not too shy of making use of information and economic resources as a way to improve its negotiation and lobbying.
As a case study one can mention a software provider who had at the time asked me to engage as a reseller, had started off with this kind of unethical approach by attempting to impose his company's terms and conditions upon me, and I simply refused to accept some of the conditions since they were unfavorable and not in the interests of my own smaller business venture, which brings about the common wisdom that not accepting recommendations and proposals prima facea is an effective executive thinking philosophy, whether you are a self-employed entrepreneur or whether you represent Microsoft Corporation. Larger companies have the same kind of problems and difficulties of negotiation and competition that you face, it is just that they might have more resources available to them, which at times can be an issue that imposes a slower way by which their bureaucratic procedures can react to external factors (e.g. politics, economics, law, the environment, and, social factors influencing its relevant, legitimate and possibly authoritative stakeholders including shareholders, senior management of connected companies, customers, employees, sub-contractors - whether they supply core or support activities, and the general public. This alone leaves the manager with a very busy schedule typically consisting of a lot of communication and a lot of other daily duties tied to their management responsibilities. Since corporates are typically banking customers as few people would dare to leave their cash unguarded as this would make for an irresponsible administrative management system, then the issues that corporates face are seen to influence the economic and marketing strategies of the banking industry and other influencing entities influencing money supply, assuming its demand is one that most people would accumulate the maximum amount that can be availed of or saved on their personal account or budget, and, this principle is seen to apply even to larger firms.
Global activity has broadly strengthened and is expected to improve further in 2014–15, according to the April 2014 WEO, with much of the impetus for growth coming from advanced economies. Although downside risks have diminished overall, lower-than-expected inflation poses risks for advanced economies, there is increased financial volatility in emerging market economies, and increases in the cost of capital will likely dampen investment and weigh on growth. Source:IMF.
Keynes had argued that fluctuations of fixed investment (i.e. probably from the global private industry) influence the savings available to banks for them to lend, who after deducting regulatory margins for solvency and other reserves that are beyond the scope of this discussion, but can be further analyzed in line with standards of the banking industry. Moreover, it was argued that savings does not fall as much as interest rates do (hence the decrease in savings is inelastic) and to my mind, this is observed and from what I can perceive as a social analyst, happens due to the fact that people won't just run to the bank and withdraw all their money unless there is a major news of bankruptcy. In any case, regulation has reached an advanced stage in the developed countries and consumers are made to feel protected by European consumer protection directives, although case studies indicate that negotiation and arbitration are still necessary to make ends meet when litigating parties are involved. Regulatory bodies tend to make a number of possibly incorrect and speculative validations before validating cases and more often than not researchers have felt that their rights are not sufficiently covered and protected by the regulations, so there is room for improvement from the consumers' point of view, and, this would be expected to bring about further skepticism as people might tend to avoid lending, with a view that banks are unfriendly, money-making "pigs" in an economy that is still left with perceptions of pessimistic outlook, as the Maltese Chamber of Commerce seemed to convey recently in its reactions and pre-budget discussions with the executive leaders of the Government of Malta.
Keynes argued that income and substitution go in opposite direction, therefore "if I was a wealthy man" I might not necessarily make the same consumption purchases that I make than if I was a person living in poverty. Would I choose to buy an expensive car just because my name is Mitt Romney (for the sake of illustration)? If I were to engage in conspicuous consumption, would I still have a net worth of a few millions less, that I would not really bother about for the rest of my life? Perhaps if my name was Ebeneezer Scrooge (or I was a Maltese business man as this seems to be typical in certain social circles), would I still hoard massive amounts of money in the bank - which brings back the argument in favor of savings as a "safe haven for the rainy day" which is a compelling argument for banks to attract deposits, whether they can be withdrawn upon demand or are held on a fixed deposit basis.
Keynes argued that investment is based on long-term expectations, and, thus short-term needs for cash flow and revenue albeit being valid management principles and practices, are not the only factor that in theory would attract educated investors (or their educated investment managers) to a particular money market, not to mention that technology nowadays allows bank transfers to be carried out in matters of seconds, strictly from a technology point of view and if the market were not highly regulated to allow for verification to be carried out in the background that allow a legal transfer of funds between one account and another or between one country and another. Compliance, fraud and money laundering issues come to my mind through my experience of banking practice.
Keynes argued that savings and investment are not the main determinants of investment, especially in the short-term. For example, some traders buy and sell currency, and, allow customers to carry out such trade of currencies through deposits held with their trading platform, making profits from day to day fluctuations of exchange rates, money markets and stock prices, and, such traders seem to have made us go through pain and joy as we watched headlines of stock market crashes and economic recession. Secondly, investors do not simply invest because they want to earn a fixed interest rate, otherwise they would save their money in a bank which offers an interest rate in return for their money. Entrepreneurs aim to achieve their business objectives and reading the thoughts of investors, more often than not they are aware of the risk and take a plunge or a calculated risk in their venture. Generally, it is observed that banking employees are more risk adverse than business customers, at least from my own experience, as they protect different sides of the same coin.
Keynes argued that fear of capital losses might give rise to the tendency to short sell e.g. liquidate investments or fixed term deposits out of the stipulated contract period in times of crisis and fear. For example, if I have money saved up for a rainy day, and an emergency crops up that leads me to ask the bank manager to liquidate those funds, I would then have to negotiate with the bank and incur charges for the early withdrawal of such funds, as this has to be agreed again between myself and the legal representative of the bank.
It is also thought that digital (virtual) currencies might pose unregulated risks to the money supply within the banking industry and this is thought to influence the money available for lending (in aggregate) within the regulated and the unregulated economies.
Interest rates, alternatives between different forms of investment proposals and contemporary business practices all influence money markets and whether these are tightly or loosely regulated, a degree of regulation overhead still exists and might be a factor causing inertia that in itself inhibits the financing of business activities, which does not quite fall short of expectations of professional management of business operations, aiming to achieve not just profit, but social and ethical responsibilities, as these are the norm in today's professional marketing. Flexi Bundle

Monday, November 17, 2014

Cost saving tips...for life...

Home economics (also known as family and consumer sciences, home ec., and in some cases, human ecology, home science) is the profession and field of study that deals with the economics and management of the home and community. This article aims to provide some practical day to day tips that we learnt as a family.
1. Make financial plans in advance, using either a spreadsheet or a notebook, or your mental notes. Budgeting helps you spread your monetary resources wisely, and, do make sure to keep a list of basic necessities. Try not to eat too much, it makes your diet unhealthy, and, it makes you grow fat and obese, which is against your interests.
2. Save on reusable products, including plastic/glass containers. Do not throw them away immediately, try to re-use containers. My grandfather used to prepare onion pickles by dipping onions in red vinegar, and, leaving them to ferment for a few weeks. My neighbors make wine out of grapes, and, a friend of mine who is a farmer makes vermouth and alcoholic beverages from wheat, potato, and, other vegetables which are bought for much less, and, can be sold for a little profit if you do not consumer all the delicacies yourself. You can also dedicate 15 minutes per day in writing up online blogs, offering services to people who might not have time to take care of their household and are willing to pay a fee for the service. One should not expect multiples of the minimum wage, therefore it is wise to know the basic rights allowed by the law.

The wage will be set at 8.50 euros (£6.80) per hour, which is higher than the equivalent in the US and UK.
Angela Merkel's Christian Democrats approved the new policy as part of a power-sharing deal with the Social Democratic Party (SPD), sourced from BBC.com.

3. If you are unemployed, seek training, seek jobs that you are qualified and skilled to start working, and, try not to be too greedy, as long as the budget meets your remuneration. Most employers provide basic services to their staff, including a kitchen, water, basic hygiene, and, family services are available for those families struggling to make ends meet trying to balance their work-life balance, including child care services at reasonable pricing. If you are seeking to setup a small business, many state-funded services are available to provide basic business training and mentoring, along with support to access business funding and thus you can make a reasonable balance between your personal life and your business life.
4. Use basic economic principles at your home, including a regular schedule for house duties (e.g. cleaning, shopping for basic necessities, visit to the doctor or health center), and, communicate when you need help or support. Many voluntary organizations are willing to support genuine requests for support. My father, a 60+ year old person, still works, helps with cooking meals and finds time to relax with his friends, and, he has only had primary education due to the dire economic times in the 1950s, with the education available nowadays, you can surely plan more efficiently.
5. Physical exercise helps, it is healthy. I am lazy so I tend to go out for a walk when I feel like it and consider running up and down the stairs a "good enough" exercise. My uncle goes out for an hour walking around the city, and, my sister got herself a threadmill for a good price.
6. Check for second hand items worth buying. You can buy off the Internet, checking for reasonable offers, or directly from a retail store. You can buy second hand furniture at good prices, it just requires careful maintenance, however some find antique furniture and items a good value for money. If you are buying new items, don't rely solely on your impressions, be aware of your consumer rights, check the product labels, and, make perky questions to the retailer. He knows much more than you think he does, and if he does not, you can teach him/her a new lesson. If you do not use Internet regularly, try changing habits, a search does provide more information than you need to make a buying decision, at least generally this is the case.
Other security matters, these are subrogative to your existential right to privacy where data related controls tend to focus and revolve on the theory of rememberance of candidate keys. IBM outlines remembrance of the iconic computer science online and three key issues we have in automated image processing are lookalikes, the consciousness of persons and their rights that have to balanced against corporate interests and policies, such as recruitment processes, and, the issue of stereotypes, personalities, prejudices, and, controversial arguments intended only to diver attention from the matter, for the reason we generally use forums, hoping they elicit the necessary deep thinking amongst executives, whilst it is observed that some automated bots are programmed to lead a human to feel discouraged from complaining based on a theory based on time and mood. You can contact the author, Jonathan Camilleri on camilleri.jon@gmail.com, as he can provide further business consultancy, and, information on making the right decisions, for a little fee. You may also wish to visit www.vintagemalta.com, and contact us with information about items that you want listed on auction.
Items must meet defined quality standards, and, have to be offered at good value for money. We charge a listing fee of 25 EUR per item, and, reserve the right to add additional charges to cover our costs, and, commission upon closing of the sale, along with providing additional insurance and shipping services to deliver to the door, or to the boat, if you are sailing.

Sources of information 1. International Federation of Home Economics, available online.
2. Healthy Living, available online.
3. Calorie Count, available online.
4. How to make quick-pickled red onions, available online.
5. Ebay, one of the largest auction websites, available online.
6. EC Consumer Rights, available online.
7. University of Malta - Home Economics and human ecology syllabus, available online.
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